James Surowiecki wrote a bestseller, The Wisdom of Crowds, in which he discussed how large groups of people are able to predict the future (in horse racing, for example) or make accurate estimates (the number of jelly beans in a jar) with far more accuracy than individuals – or even experts.

It’s a great book, so I looked forward to James’ talk. (http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/james_surowiecki_on_the_turning_point_for_social_media.html) It was not as successful, though the content was mostly up to James’ high standards.  But his delivery detracted from what otherwise would have been top-notch.

The talk illustrates a couple of important insights into successful public speaking.  First, Surowiecki begins in medias res, as Aristotle recommended, ‘in the middle of things’, by reading two blog accounts of the Asian tsunami that wreaked so much destruction a couple of years ago. 

The blog accounts are riveting, and they set James up to say that the tsunami marked the coming of age of the blogosphere, in the sense that it far surpassed the mainstream media for the timeliness, accuracy, and comprehensiveness of its coverage of that terrible disaster.

The problem is that there is a non-negotiable rule for beginning a talk.  If you start with a ‘hook’ – and you should – it must last from 1 – 3 minutes.  In this case, James’ hook – reading from the 2 blog accounts – lasted 3:45.  That’s just too long, and it got awkward.  At about 2:30, any audience will begin to wonder, just how long is this thing going on?  And that's not what you want your audience to be thinking about. 

He needed to edit the accounts or read only one.

Further, because he was reading, he spent most of the first 3:45 minutes with his head down, not connecting with the crowd.  That prevented the talk from beginning with all the pizzazz and connection it needed. 

After that too-long beginning, Surowiecki demonstrated a mild case of happy feet – standing on one leg, wandering around in a tight little circle.  Interestingly, his arm and hand gestures were overdone, and also limited to tight little circles.  Something was tying James up into knots – nervousness?  Shyness?  Introversion?  -- and that kept him from delivering a more successful talk. 

Surowiecki closes with a warning that the Internet and blogosphere could become a trap for us, because we are in danger of all thinking alike in the giant network these high-tech devices create.  It’s much like an ant colony that begins to march in a circle, James says, in reminding us that the wisdom of crowds paradoxically depends on many independent judgments.